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This research analyzes the influence of disbursed amounts in commercial loans on Panama’s economic growth, measured through real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), during the years 2017–2023—a period in which commercial credit constituted one of the main mechanisms for stimulating the national productive sector. Under a quantitative approach with a non-experimental longitudinal design, simple linear and logarithmic regression models were estimated based on 28 quarterly observations obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), corresponding to real GDP and the amounts disbursed in commercial loans at the national level, using SPSS and EViews 10 software. Pearson’s correlation indicated a significant positive association between the variables (R = 0.741; p < 0.01). The final econometric model (logarithmic with a lagged dependent variable) showed an explanatory power of 56.2% (adjusted R² = 0.562; F = 17.68; p < 0.001), satisfying the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity of the residuals. It is concluded that commercial loans exert a positive and statistically significant influence on Panama’s economic growth; however, the moderate impact suggests that a proportion of these funds is allocated to operating expenses rather than productive investment, thereby attenuating its multiplier effect. These findings have implications for the design of credit policies oriented toward sustainable growth.
Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional.
