The objective of this analysis is to make a forecast of economic activity using the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), using the seasonal decomposition technique with the Census X13 ARIMA and the Box & Jenkins methodology for the monthly forecasts of the year 2023. The results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness of the IMAE for short and long-term forecasts in seasonality and cycle with the multiplicative method, forecasting 6.8% average annual growth in 2023 compared to 2022, being in the range of the World Bank's GDP growth estimate with 5.7%. The forecasts and their interpretations must consider the local and international context as they are only punctual approximations and refer to the historical behavior of the variable. In conclusion, this indicator has proven to be reliable, but it is also plausible in a second phase of this work, to make forecasts based on uncertainty with the ARHC and GARCH models.
