The Colon Free Zone is one of the most important commercial activities of Panama dedicated to the import and re-export of final and intermediate goods, in addition to other complementary services. Since 2013 a deterioration of its performance was mainly induced by trade and tariff restriction of Colombia. The research aims to develop a predictive methodology for estimating re-exports to Colombia, as a tool for forecasting and decision making for an effective allocation of resources.
The Box-Jenkins methodology was applied and established an ARIMA (0,1, 1) (0,1,1) model which presented the highest degree of adjustment. The results provide a robust and reliable model to predict short-term re-export movement to Colombia.
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