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The accelerated and often chaotic urban expansion in Panama's coastal zones has exerted unprecedented pressure on littoral ecosystems, resulting in the systematic degradation of mangroves, wetlands, and critical buffer zones. This phenomenon not only compromises local biodiversity but also drastically reduces the resilience of human settlements to extreme hydrometeorological events. This article addresses the lack of operational planning models by proposing an advanced simulation framework based on System Dynamics and Discrete Event Simulation (DES). The central objective is to provide decision-makers with a technical platform to evaluate, in advance, the environmental consequences of different urban growth trajectories and the effectiveness of mitigation policies. The proposed methodology integrates geospatial data and socioeconomic variables to model land-use change under conditions of uncertainty. Three fundamental strategies are analyzed: high-fidelity restrictive zoning, the implementation of multifunctional green infrastructures, and the establishment of ecological connectivity corridors. Conceptual simulation results indicate that a hybrid strategy, combining the strict protection of ecological cores with water-sensitive urban buffer zones, is the only one capable of maintaining an Environmental Quality Index (EQI) above 90% over a 20-year horizon. It is concluded that the transition towards proactive, science-based urban management is imperative to guarantee the sustainability of Panamanian coasts.
Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional.
